Portfolio Simulator Demo2

https://gemini.google.com/share/624172446796

Portfolio Growth Simulator

Simulate the growth of your VOO, VGT, VTV, BTC, 0051.TW, 2330.TW, & Cash portfolio.

Settings

Initial Investment ($USD)

Time Horizon (Years)

Your Allocation

Simulated Growth

Summary

Initial Investment $10,000

Total Gain $0

Final Value $10,000

Simulated YoY Max Drawdown

Disclaimer: This is a simulation based on hypothetical returns and volatility. It is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry risk.

Portfolio Simulator Demo

Portfolio Growth Simulator

Simulate the growth of your VOO, VGT, VTV, BTC, 0051.TW, 2330.TW, & Cash portfolio.

Settings

Initial Investment ($USD)

Time Horizon (Years)

Your Allocation

Simulated Growth

Summary

Initial Investment $10,000

Total Gain $0

Final Value $10,000

Disclaimer: This is a simulation based on hypothetical returns. It is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry risk.

Canvas for portfolio tracker = Portfolio test - 1

Portfolio Growth Tracker

Simulating your $100,000 investment from Jan 2020.

LIVE Nov 07, 2025

Current Portfolio Value

$0.00

Total Gain: $0.00

(+0.00%)

Portfolio Value Over Time

Current Allocation

Initial Portfolio Allocation (Jan 2020)

Asset	Ticker	Weight	Initial Value
Vanguard S&P 500	VOO	30%	$30,000
Vanguard Info Tech	VGT	15%	$15,000
Vanguard Value	VTV	30%	$30,000
Bitcoin	BTC	10%	$10,000
TSMC	2330.TW	10%	$10,000
Cash	USD	5%	$5,000

SerDes market summary generated by AI

 

SerDes Market Overview (Quick summary from Research and to be verified)

The AI Connectivity Battlefield

The AI boom requires unprecedented data speeds. This has ignited a war over "interconnects" — the vital links connecting GPUs, CPUs, and memory. The market is splitting, and new giants are emerging.

The Great Divide: Two Ecosystems Emerge

The battle isn't just company vs. company; it's two competing philosophies for building AI data centers. One is a closed, optimized "walled garden," while the other is an "open alliance" built on new standards.

Ecosystem 1: The Walled Garden

Lead Player: Nvidia Dominated by a single vendor providing a fully integrated, proprietary stack.

• Key Tech: NVLink, InfiniBand
• Strategy: Full-stack optimization.
• Pros: Highest performance, seamless integration.
• Cons: Vendor lock-in, high cost.

V S

Ecosystem 2: The Open Alliance

Lead Players: Broadcom, Astera, AMD, Intel A "best-of-breed" model where components from different vendors work together.

• Key Tech: Ethernet (UEC), PCIe, CXL
• Strategy: Interoperability, open standards.
• Pros: Flexibility, lower cost, no lock-in.
• Cons: Integration complexity.

The Titans: Rulers of the Roost

Nvidia: The Incumbent King

Nvidia doesn't just sell GPUs; it sells a complete AI factory. Its proprietary NVLink and InfiniBand interconnects create a powerful "moat," locking customers into its high-performance ecosystem. They win by owning the entire stack.

Illustrative AI Accelerator Market Share

Broadcom (Avago): The Ethernet Giant

Broadcom is the king of networking and the primary challenger to Nvidia's interconnect dominance. As a founder of the Ultra Ethernet Consortium (UEC), Broadcom is rallying the "open" ecosystem around its industry-standard Tomahawk switches.

Data Center Interconnect Technology Share

The "Picks & Shovels": Enabling the Boom

This new class of company provides the essential "glue" for AI infrastructure. They sell retimers, switches, and cables that make high-speed PCIe, CXL, and Ethernet connections possible. They win by selling to *everyone* in the open ecosystem.

Explosive Growth in AI Connectivity Chips

The market for connectivity chips like PCIe/CXL retimers and memory interface chips is forecast to more than quadruple by 2030, driven almost entirely by the demands of AI servers.

Projected PCIe/CXL Interconnect Chip Market ($B)

Astera Labs (ALAB)

The high-flying star of the "open" ecosystem. Astera Labs is a pure-play leader in PCIe & CXL retimers and switches, the "glue" that connects GPUs and accelerators from different vendors. Their staggering 150%+ revenue growth reflects their critical role.

Credo (CRDO)

A direct competitor to Astera, Credo specializes in high-speed connectivity solutions like Active Electrical Cables (AECs) and SerDes. With massive 120%+ projected growth, Credo is capturing a huge piece of the connectivity pie, particularly inside the rack.

Montage (MONT)

A leader in the crucial *memory* interface. Montage dominates the market for DDR5 RCDs (Registering Clock Drivers) and is a key supplier of PCIe/CXL retimers, which are essential for connecting the massive memory pools required by LLMs.

The IP Innovator

Kandou.ai

Kandou is a technology provider that licenses its high-speed, low-power SerDes IP (the core technology inside a retimer) to other chipmakers. They are an "ingredient" player, innovating the underlying tech that enables the entire ecosystem.

The Verdict: Who Wins the Market Share?

There is no single winner. The market is big enough for multiple players to win in different ways. The major winners will be:

Winner 1: Nvidia

"The Walled Garden"

Nvidia continues to win its own massive, integrated market. They are the 800-pound gorilla and will retain dominant share *within their ecosystem*.

Winner 2: Astera & Credo

"The Pure-Play Growth"

These companies are the biggest *growth* winners. As the "open" ecosystem explodes, the demand for their "glue" (retimers, AECs) will skyrocket, making them the purest bet on open AI.

Winner 3: Broadcom

"The Open Standard"

Broadcom wins the long-term "open" battle. Their dominance in Ethernet switching makes them the default choice for hyperscalers building the *next* generation of massive, non-Nvidia clusters.

 

（親子旅行）歐洲的歷史與為什麼可以從18世紀到現在仍鼓吹文藝復興持續思考辯論

 

瑞士蘇黎世機場附近的社區巷弄

車票CHF 3.0

故事可以在歐洲的隨處可見（翻拍自某處公告欄）

歐洲對於歷史、思想與文化討論在日常生活中可以隨處可見。而瑞士的邦聯共和的治理下，愛國的氛圍又特別的明顯（隨處可以看到高掛瑞士國旗與聯邦的旗幟的房子與車票）。說明了這個國家對於國家的概念超級強烈的，同時平民每年都仍需回去補服役來訓練戰技~1個月(FB 世界特種部隊與軍武資料庫)，還有同事常常輪流請軍事訓練假也已經變成瑞士企業的正常。

（親子旅行）歐陸旅行１－ 科學與自然的天堂， 瑞士

疫情封控後，終於帶著妻小再度一起跨洲旅遊，回來熟悉的歐洲（每年都來賓果了）。對比前面幾次只有自己來或是下班時間有同事一起玩，這次帶著家人可以照顧小孩的緩慢地自助旅行（前面其實也還好？就是下班後跑百米或是週末跟大家一起跟同事團當個小白觀光客）

瑞士是個好山好水的移民國家，面積大於台灣（大概相當），不過總人口少於1/2.5的台灣，整體的生活壓力明顯低很多。產業多是以手工錶、觀光、精密機械與藥物這類高毛利率的商品支撐（還有極少數的新創IP公司如敝司...XD)，可以在這裡感受到生活的寬闊，步調緩慢而上帝的公平（距離感真的是好空間？）即便食物價是台北的三倍以上，旅館跟其他育樂設施的平價（旅館比台北便宜、登山活動跟博物館設施的完善）讓人覺得只要可以，真希望永遠在這裡，這裡真的是天堂般的國度。有美景，科學的故事與友善的人們（在洛桑時說到我們是台灣來的時，當地人感到驚訝，然後很熱情的介紹）。

(Open Source) A.I.整理Podcast功能開放，策略交易的資料整理還有網頁應用（計算機，俄羅斯方塊）的測試

今天看到了很多資訊愛好者分享了Notebook LLM 可以自動生成Podcast後，迫不及待打開便發現介面的右側，裡面出現了一個新的AI summarized Podcast的功能，透過Google Notebook LLM生成了以下這兩個Podcasts（英文）

Podcast-test1 關於使用AI做交易策略 Apr.-30 

(閱讀筆記) 美股拍賣的四月天重翻<巴菲特寫給股東的信>

美股快樂的大拍賣時光好像一下子就過去了(吧?) , 周五的收復4月初的關稅失土就好像甚麼事都沒有發生.

這樣大拍賣的場景, 本月(4月)有好幾天都是 :D

重翻<巴菲特寫給股東的信, 全新增修版> , 覺得這位奧哈瑪的睿智投資人, 對於這段期間的描述特別合適. 也試著用Notion.AI做個簡化版的計畫來檢視(簡易版), 對於新科技與未來更有生產力抱持希望的樂觀大盤訂閱的份子, 就算真的進入大蕭條, 我們也是可以說嘴了, 百年難得一見這時候還敢持續進場... 

"馬拉松如人生, 同樣高低起伏一旦你經歷了, 就會覺得甚麼都難不倒自己" (股市也是這樣, John Bogle的<夠了>也提過一樣的概念, 那些持續在股市拚搏的活著的, 都是值得慶祝每天的人 XD)

"市場閃崩或出現極端的波動, 恐懼是好事. 普遍的得意忘形與覺得買了就會漲的氣氛才值得堤防"~ 巴菲特

(DIY筆記) 如何讓手邊硬體不支援Win 11舊的 Windows電腦，也可以簡單順利升級到Win 11

今年就是Windows 10停止更新的期限了，手邊的電腦即便沒有Windows 11建議的硬體，只要透過修改了Register Key（還有漫長的安裝），也是可以很簡單的從原本的Windows 10-->11。

參考資料：

（ＶＥＲＧＥ）The easy way to install Windows 11 on unsupported CPUs

（Microsoft）  Windows 10 支援將於 2025 年 10 月 14 日終止

操作步驟：

１．首先先開啟「執行」（也可以Windows鍵＋Ｒ）。 輸入“Regedit”

２．找到 Computer\HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SYSTEM\Setup\MoSetup, 新增一個DWROD(32Bit)，命名為 "AllowUpgradesWithUnsupportedTPMOrCPU" 值寫成"1"

（閱讀心得）經濟學教科書版的實境秀＿關稅戰與無產階級的崛起

 

「有個幽靈正在糾纏歐洲＿那正是共產主義的幽靈」~<共產黨宣言，The Communist Magnifiesto>

Great depression?

相信工人世界與推倒階級是需要革命的人，想到過去的這禮拜關稅帝君的大禮包時，應該會體認到當反商的政治家行動的時候，可讓資產泡沫以協助無產階級推翻資產，是可以多驚人的速度進行。之前來蘇格蘭出差的時候，特別對於李嘉圖、亞當。斯密、卡爾。馬克思......這些家喻戶曉的經濟學家在英國生活的地方這段歷史有興趣。（應該世界上的思想家與革命家，最終都會來英國這個歷史悠久的地方長居）

2023攝於Glasgow University

應該加個但書。自己不是對於階級有什麼特別的立場，也很樂於現代資本社會的便利，單純只是喜歡閱讀，也很驚訝在有生之年可以實際參與這個國際級的大洗牌。希望大家都一起好好過日子，然後等待下一個大場面的來臨（雖然機會渺茫）。

０４０７開盤大盤就跌停📉（然後０４０９漲停📈）

北投的日本神社早晨

延伸閱讀：

1. <經濟學的４０堂公開課>~Niall Kishtainy

2.<夠了> ~John Bogle

3. < 國富論> & <21世紀資本論>